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Prediction for CME (2025-06-06T11:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-06-06T11:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/39307/-1
CME Note: Faint and wide CME to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2. Source is an eruption centered near N12E37 starting around 2025-06-06T10:50Z, as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 and GOES SUVI 284 imagery.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-06-10T00:01Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-06-06T17:33Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 508
Longitude (deg): 039E
Latitude (deg): 28N
Half-angular width (deg): 32

Notes: Possible from filament in NE, else perhaps sub-'surface' emerging sunspot region, dimming in AIA211. Very clear CME, Lasco C3 and COR2 used for fitting. Arrival time subjectively retarded slightly relative to modelling by human in the loop given overly-fast MOSWOC Enlil initialised solar winds.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence

Lead Time: 23.72 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2025-06-09T00:18Z

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